PHOTO BY EVAN SIEGLE, GREEN BAY PACKERS

Aaron Rodgers, the quarterback who has signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers after a tedious bout of hemming and hawing, tested positive for COVID-19 in November 2021.

His career has gone downhill in the years since.

The circumstances of his positive test, which occurred without Rodgers having been vaccinated against the disease, represented something of a PR mess. Rodgers had previously told reporters that he had been “immunized,” but he was referring to a series of holistic treatments that are not proven to offer any protection against COVID-19. Rodgers later claimed that he had an allergy to certain vaccine ingredients, so he sought alternative treatment.

It is not known how serious Rodgers’ bout with COVID-19 was. The effects of the coronavirus have varied from person to person and strain to strain; while many have deadly consequences, others are mild. (In the immediate aftermath of his infection, Rodgers said — then denied — that he was suffering from “COVID toe,” a rare symptom that inflames and discolors the toes.)

It is known, however, that individuals who have not received a COVID-19 vaccine tend to suffer more serious and long-lasting symptoms. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that the risk of critical illness from a COVID-19 infection is reduced by almost 70% in the months immediately following vaccination, and a Yale Medicine study demonstrated that the likelihood of Long COVID is significantly reduced among those who have been vaccinated.

It would be irresponsible to speculate that Rodgers has lingering effects as a result of contracting COVID-19 while unvaccinated; to do so would be to conflate correlation and causation, a logically and scientifically dubious approach. (Rodgers does precisely that on a regular basis, but that’s a column for another day.)

There’s nothing irresponsible, however, about sharing certain statistics. For example: That 2021 season, during which Rodgers was sidelined for 10 days as a result of his COVID-19 diagnosis, was his final season as a winning quarterback. The following season, his Green Bay Packers went 8-9. A year later, he was injured in week one and did not return; in 2024, he led the New York Jets to a dismal 5-12 record.

Through 2021, Rodgers averaged more than 34 touchdowns per year (during seasons in which he played at least 15 games). In 2022, he threw 26; in 2024, he threw 28.

In 2020, 9.1% of his passes resulted in touchdowns. In 2022, that number was down to 4.8%, with the same percentage posted in 2024.

There’s a complicated statistic tracked by football data folks called Passing Success Rate; defined as simply as possible, it measures the frequency with which a quarterback does something useful with each snap. In 2024, that number was the second-lowest of Rodgers’ starting career, at 43.9%.

There are several plausible explanations for Rodgers’ diminished performance and poor win-loss records over the past couple of seasons. He is among the league’s oldest quarterbacks; statistics, and results, often drop precipitously once a quarterback hits his late 30s. He also left his longtime franchise in Green Bay, making him reacclimate late in his career; that’s rarely a change that produces better results in aging players.

Those impacts will be even more pronounced when Rodgers dons a Steelers uniform. He’ll turn 42 this season. Pittsburgh is a brand-new environment for him — and, by not actually telling anyone he felt like playing football until June, he’ll have less time than the average new quarterback to familiarize himself with the team.

Whatever the reasons and causes, there are very much two versions of the quarterback Aaron Rodgers. There was a superstar who led the Green Bay Packers (and beat the Steelers to win a Super Bowl) in the ’10s. In the ’20s, Rodgers has been defined primarily by indecision, injury, COVID-19 and controversy.

Steelers fans should keep this decade’s version of Rodgers in mind when anticipating this season’s results.