Pirates Battling Uncertainty With No. 1 Pick

Tonight's MLB Draft could be the beginning of the long-awaited next chapter at PNC Park. Or not.

Pat Lackey is veteran blogger and a frequent guest of Pulling No Punches. Today, he breaks down the Pirates' possible first-overall draft picks. You can read part one of his draft blog, "The Curse of First," here.

Make no mistake, tonight's MLB Draft is big. The Pirates' first overall pick is an enormous opportunity to compliment an already fast-developing stable of young talent. You can see the outline of a successful team coming together in Pittsburgh this season, but while it’s true that the farm system is improving, the Bucs still have quite a lot of work to do. Adding premium talent never hurts.

Unfortunately, that's about the only thing I'm certain of in advance of tonight's draft. Neal Huntington's front office is notoriously closed-door about personnel decisions, and with the hours ticking away there is still no clear favorite to go no. 1. The best we can do is narrow the field down to three potential choices. Let's take a quick look at the three college juniors the Pirates are giving long looks:

Anthony Rendon: A year ago, Rendon seemed like the obvious choice. In his sophomore year at Rice, the third baseman hit .394/.539/.801 (average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) with 26 homers in 226 at-bats. Combined with his 20-homer freshman campaign, he was being compared favorably to Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman, two of baseball's best young third basemen.

Unfortunately, he suffered a broken ankle at the end of the season. Though he was expected to make a full recovery, the injury was obviously a concern for a team in the Pirates' position. He seemed to be recovering nicely, but he injured his throwing shoulder before the 2011 season started and he's spent most of the year at as a designated hitter. Recently, he's played some second base, raising questions about the health of his arm and his long-term ability to stay at third.

Most worryingly, his power has taken a big dip this year; in 2011 he's hitting .327/.523/.535 with six homers. His ability to stay healthy long-term is the biggest question surrounding him now.

Gerrit Cole: Early in the season, the right-handed Cole's fastball (which tops out at 100+ mph) earned him comparisons to Washington Nationals' flamethrower Stephen Strasburg. The UCLA pitcher doesn't have the numbers to match that comparison, though; this year he's striking out just over a batter an inning and he's allowed 92 hits in 107 innings, which gives him a 3.28 ERA. He's had a couple of very rough starts and though there's no questioning his talent, his inability to dominate at the college level is certainly raising some questions about picking him with the first overall pick. Still, most polls and mock drafts have Cole as the slight favorite to go no. 1.

Danny Hultzen: Hultzen's the late-comer to the party, trying to fill the vacuum that's been created by Rendon and Cole not stepping up. The lefty from the University of Virginia has dominated this year, striking out 12.7 hitters per nine innings and putting up a 1.59 ERA. He's only allowed three runs in a start once and he's never allowed more. Plus, Hultzen has only given up double-digit hits in one start this year. He's obviously talented and has been lights-out this season.

So what's the concern? For one, college pitchers that get tagged with seemingly encouraging reviews like "most polished" or "fast-riser," both terms that are used to describe Hultzen, often end up with careers like the Pirates' own Paul Maholm. That's no knock on Maholm, but he's never going to be much more than a mid-rotation guy. There's a clear ceiling. Is Hultzen cut from the same cloth?

Other prospects: The Pirates have also indicated at least some interest in Dylan Bundy (a high school pitcher from Oklahoma with a 100 mph fastball), Bubba Starling (a Kansas high school outfielder that's committed to play quarterback for the University of Nebraska), and some have speculated that Cole's teammate at UCLA, Trevor Bauer (a smaller pitching prospect with great numbers but high pitch counts and unorthodox mechanics), has played his way into consideration.

So what will the Pirates do? Keeping the Pirates' recent draft history in mind, Rendon would seem like the obvious choice. Since Neal Huntington took over as general manager, the Pirates have often avoided pitchers from elite college programs. Quite often, college pitchers get shouldered with huge workloads that result in injuries, and the Pirates thus far have shown a preference to work with high school arms that they have more control over. Still, ESPN's Keith Law recently put the Pirates' chances of drafting Rendon below 20 percent.

Personally, my preference would be Rendon. The injuries that have slowed him down in 2011 aren't supposed to be lingering issues and while there's some fear that he might turn into a Ryan Doumit-type who is constantly broken down, Rendon is likely less of a risk than Cole and Hultzen. You make decisions based on positional needs in baseball's annual draft, and Rendon would add another potentially strong bat to a team that needs more offense at the major league level (and that coincidentally doesn't have a whole lot on the way in the minors).

The stumbling block is his injury. However, MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo reported this week that teams have medical information on Rendon's shoulder. Mayo predicted him to go second overall to the Mariners. Since a few previous mock drafts had Rendon sliding further down in the top ten because of the injury concerns, I read that to mean that there's nothing too troubling in the medical file.

There's really no easy choice for the Pirates here; they would be justified in taking any of the top five or six players available due to concerns with just about everyone in the top of this draft class. I think Rendon makes the most sense for them on a lot of levels, though, and he's the guy I'm hoping the Pirates draft tonight.

Edit Module

Edit ModuleShow Tags

Hot Reads

Goin' to the Chapel – Or Not?

Goin' to the Chapel – Or Not?

With so many options in and around the city, every couple can find the special space that feels just right — whether they’re looking for nature, rustic charm, fairytale romance, stained-glass beauty, treasured religious ritual or classic tradition.
Underground Pittsburgh: Explore our City of Tunnels

Underground Pittsburgh: Explore our City of Tunnels

Delve below the surface to explore the underground areas that serve as vital pathways to our region.
Kitchen Roots: Ruta, Solomonov and Ehland

Kitchen Roots: Ruta, Solomonov and Ehland

Chefs who grew up in Pittsburgh are shaping the culinary scene in other cities across the country — and gaining national recognition in the process.
Restaurant Review: Gaucho Parrilla Argentina is Smokin'

Restaurant Review: Gaucho Parrilla Argentina is Smokin'

The meat-centric restaurant in the Strip District is helping to redefine Pittsburgh's dining expectations.
Edit ModuleShow Tags Edit ModuleShow Tags Edit ModuleShow Tags

On the Blogs


Great Catch: Easiest Way to Tasty Lenten Fish Frys

Great Catch: Easiest Way to Tasty Lenten Fish Frys

Looking for a delicious battered fish sandwich or golden-brown pierogies on Friday? Here’s a handy guide plus a few fun facts about our fascination with fish.

Comments


Pittsburgh, only cooler
PittGirl: Yikes! Imagine This Instead of a Fountain at the Point

PittGirl: Yikes! Imagine This Instead of a Fountain at the Point

City leaders considered many options for Pittsburgh's confluence including something that looked like it was designed by the Jetsons, or an absolutely bonkers, batpoop insane idea by the one and only Frank Lloyd Wright.

Comments


All the foodie news that's fit to blog
Pittsburgh Chef Move: Lily Tran New Executive Chef of Soba

Pittsburgh Chef Move: Lily Tran New Executive Chef of Soba

Tran takes over big Burrito's Ellsworth Ave. restaurant from Dustin Gardner, who moves back to Casbah on Highland Ave.

Comments


Not just good stuff. Great stuff.
7 Best Restaurants for College Students in Pittsburgh

7 Best Restaurants for College Students in Pittsburgh

Easy access from universities, wallet-friendly prices and really good food make these our favorite choices for the university set.

Comments


End Your Work Day at Muddy Waters' Oyster Happy Hour

End Your Work Day at Muddy Waters' Oyster Happy Hour

Some of the best oysters available in Pittsburgh can be yours for a steal at the new East Liberty spot.

Comments


Mike Prisuta's Sports Section

A weekly look at the games people are playing and the people who are playing them.
Super Bowl Predictions: Can I Have That One Back?

Super Bowl Predictions: Can I Have That One Back?

Denver's upset win over Carolina -- predicted by hardly anyone (including yours truly) -- should be interpreted as good news for Steelers' fans.

Comments


Style. Design. Goods. Hide your credit card.
Shirts We Love For Valentine’s Day

Shirts We Love For Valentine’s Day

Let your heart do the talking with these fun sweaters from Rosewood Boutique.

Comments


Sean Collier's Popcorn for Dinner

The movies that are playing in Pittsburgh –– and, more importantly, whether or not they're worth your time.
George Clooney, Jane Austen, Nicholas Sparks and Some Zombies Walk Into a Multiplex

George Clooney, Jane Austen, Nicholas Sparks and Some Zombies Walk Into a Multiplex

Our reviews of "Hail, Caesar!," "Pride and Prejudice and Zombies" and "The Choice."

Comments


Everything you need to know about getting married in Pittsburgh today.
Behind the Lens: Wedding Ring Photography

Behind the Lens: Wedding Ring Photography

On Day Five of our Week of Wedded Bliss, we spoke to wedding photographers about their inspiration for these five enticing ring photographs from our Real Pittsburgh Wedding Couples.

Comments


The latest tips and trends to refresh your home.
Say Hello (and Goodbye) to These Home & Lifestyle Shops

Say Hello (and Goodbye) to These Home & Lifestyle Shops

Divertido and Jack + Jules close in Lawrenceville, while the neighborhood welcomes Brambler Boutique. Plus, Splurge expands to a new location in Fox Chapel.

Comments


The hottest topics in higher education
Mock Crime Scene to be Held at Waynesburg University

Mock Crime Scene to be Held at Waynesburg University

The event is for high school students who are interested in criminal justice, law enforcement and forensic science.

Comments

Edit ModuleEdit ModuleShow Tags